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THE FEDERAL RESERVE SPOKE, MARKETS LISTENED

The Federal Reserve met this past week and held rates steady for the 6th consecutive meeting. Let’s discuss what was said and how the market reacted going into next week. “I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell.   The Fed Meeting Last Wednesday, the…

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Expect Tougher Talk From The Fed After This Week’s Inflation Dat

As 2024 has progressed, economic data–especially inflation data–have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected. Rates are driven by multiple factors.  At present, inflation is chief among those, followed by the economy.  In general, higher inflation and economic strength coincide with higher rates.…

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FIRST QUARTER OF 2024 IS ENDING

Mortgage rates improved slightly in this holiday-shortened week. Let’s discuss what happened as the first quarter of 2024 comes to an end and we brace for a surprise on Monday, April Fool’s Day. Fed Members Not Aligned At the most recent Fed Meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell led the markets to believe there will be…

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Mortgage Rates Intel at Easter

Mortgage rates remain well below last year’s long-term highs, but elevated in general.  The home resale market continues to protest, as seen in February’s Pending Home Sales data, released this week. One way to interpret the chart’s  is that that “there’s nowhere to go but up.”  The catch is that there’s no guaranteed time frame…

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Some Comments from Fed’s Powell 3-20-2

Strength and Stability “STRONG JOB GROWTH IS NOT A REASON FOR US TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION.” “STRONG HIRING ALL BY ITSELF WOULD NOT BE A REASON TO HOLD OFF ON RATE CUTS.” “STRONG HIRING BY ITSELF WOULD NOT BE A REASON TO HOLD OFF ON RATE CUTS.” “ON LABOR MARKET, IF WE ARE GETTING…

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RATE LESSONS LEARNED AS MARCH BEGINS

This past week, interest rates held steady amidst a slew of market-moving events. Let’s discuss what happened and see what lies in the week ahead. Fed Has Been Right Over the past couple of months, the bond market has adjusted to the idea that the Fed will only be cutting rates three or four times…

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FED MINUTES RELEASED

This past week interest rates ticked up to the highest level of the year, as the Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting were released. Let’s discuss what happened and look at the week ahead. Fed Meeting Minutes Released Last week’s main event was the release of the Minutes from the January Fed meeting. Fed Chair…

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Mortgage Rates and Inflation 2-13-24

Mortgage Rates Just Got Smoked by Barn Burner Inflation Report If it feels like there’s been an inordinate amount of focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recently, today proved it was justified.  It’s not hard to understand WHY this data should matter.  After all, inflation is the biggest reason that rates moved higher at…

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