The 70’s and 80’s brought unforgettable economic lessons about inflation. Since then, certain market participants have been watching inflation like hawks, even when they didn’t need to.

After the start of the pandemic, the massive amount of fiscal stimulus (covid relief bill) and monetary accommodation from the Fed (bond buying and rate cuts) had inflation hawks on high alert.  Fed speakers have been consistent in their response: yes, inflation was likely to spike this spring for a variety of reasons, but it wouldn’t necessarily be evidence of a sustainable shift.

Inflation can be measured in a few ways, but the most basic and most popular is via price indices published by the government.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the two dominant forces in that regard and this week brought a fresh update for the month of April.

While analysts agreed with the Fed’s inflation warning, this week’s actual CPI data eclipsed even the most aggressive forecasts, both in monthly and annual terms.

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