Data-dependent, that’s the phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets. While rates always depend on data, the data outlook isn’t always as uncertain as it has been in the past few years. This week’s jobs report is one of the best examples of reports that financial markets watch more closely than others.

Friday’s payroll count of 303k versus a median forecast of 200k was a big beat! The bigger the “beat,” the bigger the rate jump tends to be, on average. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that bonds lost ground and rates moved higher. However, the size of the rate increase is much more curious. In terms of 10yr Treasury yields, the most widely followed benchmark for longer-term rates, it wasn’t remotely close to being the biggest move of the week.

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