Another Tentatively Decent Day For Rates
It’s tough to say how long this interlude of stability will last. It could be over soon, or it could be weeks before we get back to recent highs. When it comes to how far rates might fall, it’s easier to say that we’d need to see substantial motivation. That motivation could take the form of anything “bad” for the economy or the COVID outlook (weaker economic data, lower inflation, weaker job growth, or a surge in a new COVID variant that wasn’t responsive to vaccines, for example). Without such things, the path of least resistance for rates is to continue higher–eventually.
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