Interest Rate update July 29, 2019

The U.S. Bond market traded in a tight sideways range, leaving home loan rates essentially at unchanged levels week over week. However, the technical picture reveals Bond market indecision as prices trade near the best levels of the year.

Why the indecision? The financial markets are bracing for a multitude of headline risk events in the upcoming week and traders are reluctant to place bets on the next market move in advance of the news. More on this in the forecast below.

The European Union continues to struggle economically. This past week Germany posted very weak economic numbers and manufacturing data, and as a result the European Central Bank said they are prepared to offer more stimulus to help their economies. The bad news in Europe pushed their Bond yields lower, and in turn helps push U.S. Bond yields and interest rates lower.

Here in the States, the U.S. remains the “cleanest shirt” in the laundry when compared to other global economies. This past week we saw strong Durable Goods Orders, which highlights the strength of the U.S. consumer, the shortest unemployment line in over 50 years, and strong corporate earnings reports.

Bottom line: the U.S. economy and housing market continues to bask in a Goldilocks situation — strong economy and labor market, high consumer confidence, low inflation, and low home loan rates. And if that were not enough, it is widely expected the Fed will cut rates for the first time in quite some time.

Dan Cassel

Trinity Mortgage -866-310-1112

NMLS # 347918   CADRE # 01146347

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