The Federal Reserve doesn’t ultimately dictate rate levels, but it has a huge impact on how rates move.  The Fed has been credited with fueling the improvements of the past 2 months, but it’s important to remember that credit couldn’t be given without justification from economic data.

Inflation is the most important part of the Fed’s “mandate” (a fancy word for job description).  Before we get to the chart that explains it all, let’s take a look at a chart that adds to the confusion.  It’s often repeated that Core year-over-year PCE is the Fed’s preferred metric for tracking the 2% inflation target.

Here’s how it looks after the most recent update this week: