Today’s big question is really for “how long” are rates going to stay so low?

Yesterday’s data has direct implications for tomorrow’s significantly more important data (the big jobs report).  If it were to sing a similar tune, there’s little doubt that Treasury yields would remain under pressure to move higher.  But what about mortgage rates?  Yes, they did move higher yesterday and today, but not nearly as much as Treasury yields.  This has to do with inherent differences in how mortgage bonds move compared to Treasuries.

There’s opportunity and a warning here.  On the one hand, the fact that mortgage rates have yet to panic means it’s still a great time to consider locking if you’re in a position to do so.  And this dovetails into the warning: just because mortgage rates haven’t moved higher at the same pace doesn’t mean they can’t continue to move higher if that’s where Treasuries say the broader bond market should be headed.  In other words, mortgages can defy their marching orders for a bit, but not indefinitely.

Of course it remains to be seen what those marching orders will be.  Things could turn out more balanced with tomorrow’s data and bonds could calm down.  Most bond traders are expecting the road to remain bumpy (and upwardly sloped) until and unless we see strong evidence to the contrary (i.e. a convincing move back toward lower rates/yields).

What does this all mean for the average prospective mortgage borrower?  Bottom line: rates are still pretty close to all-time lows and seem to be moving up.  There’s no guarantee they’re about to move significantly higher, but there’s a higher risk of that than there was 2 days ago (and tomorrow morning’s jobs report may go a long way in speaking to that risk).